Scenes from a Recession?

A typical Old Manali scene. In the foreground are cables with harnesses strung across the river. When a tourist was halfway across the operators would start jiggling the cables to dip their feet and sometimes more, usually over vocal protests from the person stranded on the wire.

Yesterday i mentioned that the tourist season in the hills is better than ever, due in no small part to the unseasonably hot weather in the Punjab and Gangetic plain. Although i take it for granted now, when i arrived in country i was intensely interested in the effect of the "global" recession on the Indian economy. Focusing, obviously, on the tourist sector.

In brief: It's not here.

Talking to Naveen in Delhi, he emphasized the "internal" nature of India's economy. Despite massive overhauls to India's economy since the decades of state planning (see Hindu rate of growth), much of India's economy remains domestic. This makes good sense, given a market of 1.1 billion people not going anywhere fast. At a very basic level, it's this lack of intimate international connections that spared India from feeling our own financial disaster.

India's insulation from severe recession was reflected in the throngs of domestic tourists in Manali. "Obviously," Vijay said, "business is booming." I was curious to hear Dorje's side of the story in Leh, where a much larger proportion of tourists typically come from Western nations. But if Dorje was suffering businesswise (unlikely, judging by the hours he keeps), he didn't make it known to me. Like always, he said, he experienced a little bit more growth this year, and rattled off a list of groups he was organizing--most Indian.

See, there are fewer Western tourists in Leh this summer. Talking with some of the guides confirmed this--they're really hurting, as only Westerners find recreational appeal in walking around with 40 lb loads three miles above sea level. The "middle men," though, are doing a brisk business, as the tardy monsoon drives more and more domestic tourists even further north, to Ladakh. They're easy to spot--pressed pants, collared shirts, sunscreen, rockin' the fanny pack. The quintessential middle class tourist changes very little with longitude.